Polls: The New “Rigged Election”
George Gallup released his first opinion poll in 1935. These were independent polls as he wouldn’t take money to guard against bias perceived or otherwise. His approach built became huge brand with many citing his samples of public sentiment as the most accurate available. Their approach was simple, as pollsters went door to door to figure out what people were thinking. Later, phone polling was faster and cheaper and still reliable … until 2012 where cell phone had become ubiquitous.
That thing you spend so much time with and rely has hobbled how pollsters do their work (97% of Americans have a cell phone). Steve Jobs disrupted more than just the consumer electronics industry. Phone polls were largely done through landlines since the 1980s. All the pollster’s methodologies are what is called “probability-based”, they are an attempt to get to a true random sample as possible. This was achievable where the NPA-NXX, the first six digits on your landline would ensure your location. But today with number portability (The Telecommunications Act of 1996), Cellular, and VoIP Technologies out bound survey dialing doesn’t guarantee geographic accuracy, the pollster needs to ask where they are registered to vote and there lies the second issue. There has been a huge shift in answering how Americans answer the phone. Many simply will not answer the phone if they don’t recognize the caller and who has time today to answer a lot of questions? Jon Clifton, CEO of Gallup calls the response rates in the United States as “they’re abysmal”.
The fundamentals of traditional polling have been broken and hence, the sampling isn’t accurate. Again, Clifton says “It’s bad. I mean, it’s so bad …” when referring to responses. Americans are inundated with polls. Mainstream Media (MSM) isn’t pausing to give you the methodologies used, it’s in their interest to simply toss out the numbers and then talk it to death for rest of the segment reinforcing the inherently flawed data. Pollsters need to sell a product and MSM needs it to engage viewers is a “tight loop”. And that is the more well intended side of it.
To compound things, to compliment disinformation or fake news is the “phony poll”. These polls leverage the “tight loop” in an attempt to deceive voters entirely. These are paid for by PACs where it “demobilizes voters” and make donors shy about throwing good money after bad. It also makes a candidate appear to be doing better than they are to support a claim of a “rigged election”.
In the end, polling—the once-trusted tool for gauging public sentiment—now operates in a fog of uncertainty and manipulation. What was once a straightforward reflection of democratic will has been clouded by technical challenges, dwindling response rates, and partisan distortions. Pollsters face an almost insurmountable task in restoring the credibility of their profession, and the media bears responsibility for amplifying numbers that may be more misleading than illuminating. As voters, we must approach polls with a critical eye, recognizing that the numbers flashing across our screens may tell us less about public opinion and more about the agenda of those who commissioned them. In an era where truth itself is contested; we can no longer afford to take the polls at face value. The stakes are too high.
References
1. Gallup, Inc. (n.d.). Gallup, Inc. Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup,_Inc.#:~:text=In%201935%2C%20George%20Gallup%20released%20his%20first%20political%20opinion%20poll.
2. Wood, K. (2022, September 15). Why cellphones—and trust—may be affecting polling data. Marketplace. Retrieved from https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/why-cellphones-and-trust-may-be-affecting-polling-data/.
3. TrestleIQ. (2023, February 3). Understanding NPA-NXX and the implications of number portability. Retrieved from https://trestleiq.com/knowledge-base/understanding-npa-nxx-and-the-implications-of-number-portability/.
4. Johnson, B. (2024, September 25). Political strategist: Here’s how GOP’s phony polls will help Trump with the Big Lie. NJ.com. Retrieved from https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html.